Dr. Rob J Hyndman, professor of statistics at the Monash Business School and director of the Monash University Business & Economic Forecasting Unit, is coming to Yahoo. His talk is entitled: "Exploring the boundaries of predictability: what can we forecast, and when should we give up?" Watch LIVE on the Yahoo Labs website homepage and ask questions or comment on the Yahoo Labs Facebook and Twitter (#BigThinkers) pages.
Why is it that we can accurately forecast a solar eclipse in 1000 years time, but we have no idea whether Yahoo's stock price will rise or fall tomorrow? Or why can we forecast electricity consumption next week with remarkable precision, but we cannot forecast exchange rate fluctuations in the next hour?
In this talk, I will discuss the conditions we need for predictability, how to measure the uncertainty of predictions, and the consequences of thinking we can predict something more accurately than we can.
I will draw on my experiences in forecasting Australia's health budget for the next few years, in developing forecasting models for peak electricity demand in 20 years time, and in identifying unpredictable activity on Yahoo's mail servers.
BIOGRAPHICAL NOTE
Rob J Hyndman is Professor of Statistics at the Monash Business School, and Director of the Monash University Business & Economic Forecasting Unit. He is also Editor-in-Chief of the International Journal of Forecasting and a Director of the International Institute of Forecasters. Rob is the author of over 100 research papers in statistical science, and three best-selling books on statistical forecasting. In 2007, he received the Moran medal from the Australian Academy of Science for his contributions to statistical research, especially in the area of statistical forecasting. For 30 years, Rob has maintained an active consulting practice, assisting hundreds of companies and organizations. His recent consulting work has involved forecasting electricity demand, tourism demand, and the Australian government health budget.
YAHOO LABS BIG THINKERS SPEAKER SERIES
Yahoo Labs is proud to bring you its 2015 Big Thinkers Speaker Series. Each year, some of the most influential, accomplished experts from the research community visit our campus to share their insights on topics that are significant to Yahoo. These distinctive speakers are shaping the future of the new sciences underlying the Web and are guaranteed to inform, enlighten, and inspire.
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